Know Currency Correlations
All the currency pairs are interrelated in the forex markets. They keep on affecting each other. As a forex trader, you need to understand that the price action of each currency pair is not mutually exclusive.
Most pairs move relative to one another. Understanding that different currency pairs are correlated is important for you. These correlation numbers can be positive or negative.
Knowledge of how strong this relationship is and its direction can help you in developing your trading strategies with a new perspective. This has the potential to become a great trading tool for you.
Correlations are numbers that range between +1 and -1. These numbers are calculated based on past pricing data between different currency pairs. They can provide you with information that can maximize returns, minimize risk and avoid counter productive trading.
Lets take an example. Suppose USD/JPY and USD/CHF had a positive correlation of +0.83. This number is close to +1. It means that both the pair move together most of the time.
Now, if you are trading USDJPY and USDCHF at the same time, it will double up your position if you take long positions or short positions on both at the same time. If you lose a trade on USDJPY, the chances are that you will also lose the trade on USDCHF 83% of the times.
Lets take another example. EUR/USD and USD/CHF both have a negative correlation of -0.9 in the last month. It means both the pairs were moving in opposite directions last month. If you take long position on one, it is not a good strategy to take short position on the other. It will only double up your position again and increase risk.
While investing in two currency pairs simultaneously, try to choose such pairs that have correlations close to zero. Zero correlation means the two pairs are almost independent of each other and mutually exclusive.
Dont forget that currency markets are constantly changing. The correlations between pairs also keep on changing. It would be good to calculate the correlation numbers between pairs on a monthly basis.
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